Going by the events of October 16, when Bitcoin (BTC) prices temporarily spiked to over $30,000 before retracing on news that the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) had falsely approved the first Bitcoin Exchange Traded Fund (ETF), it is highly likely that the coin may rally to over $1 million with the total crypto market cap rising to over $15 trillion.
This outlook is per the estimation of Alessandro Ottaviani, who took to X, predicting how BTC and crypto would look in the next few years once the stringent SEC approves the complex derivative.
Is Bitcoin Ready For Price Gains Towards $1 Million?
Ottaviani, who claims to be versed in Austrian economics, said the total market cap of Bitcoin swelled by over $50 billion on October 16 following the fake news. At this ratio, the analyst estimates that roughly $500 million of capital flew to Bitcoin, assuming a ratio of 100:1.
Suppose the same ratio is maintained, based on other estimates by Steven Schoenfield, the former managing director at BlackRock, who predicts that BTC could potentially receive between $150 billion and $200 billion within the next three years.
The total market capitalization will probably exceed $15 trillion in that case. Bitcoin prices will expand to over $1 million at this valuation, nearly 40X from current spot rates.
Looking at BTC charts, prices remain firm and edging higher, buoyed by October 16’s spike. Even though there was a retracement from the over $30,000 registered at peaks, prices are stable and above yesterday’s close.
From a technical perspective, the expansion of prices on October 16 represented a bullish breakout. As it is, prices are trending above September highs and at around October 2023 levels.
BTC Has Resistance At $32,000
Whether buyers will maintain the upside momentum, driving prices towards crucial resistance levels at $30,000 and $32,000 in the near term, is yet to be seen. Looking at candlestick arrangement in the daily chart, swing traders may consider prices to retest October 16 highs as the first target. Further trend continuation could lift BTC to July 2023 highs at $32,000, potentially opening up more opportunities for gains above $35,000.
Possible triggers for this upswing are diverse. Many market analysts are bullish that approving a spot Bitcoin ETF could trigger demand.
Institutions would have a means of gaining exposure to Bitcoin in a regulated manner. Accordingly, as Schoenfield puts it, this will “double or triple the amount of [assets under management] in current Bitcoin products.”
Feature image from Canva, chart from TradingView