Financial giant VanEck has put out 15 stunning Bitcoin and crypto predictions for 2024. Authored by Matthew Sigel, Head of Digital Assets Research, and Patrick Bush, Senior Investment Analyst, the analysis offers an insightful outlook on the future of the Bitcoin and cryptocurrency market.
VanEck’s Bold Bitcoin Predictions
#1 US Recession And Bitcoin ETFs: Sigel and Bush start with a macroeconomic perspective, predicting a US recession in early 2024. This economic downturn coincides with the anticipated launch of the first spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States.
They forecast substantial inflows into these ETFs, suggesting a resilient Bitcoin market despite broader economic challenges. VanEck believes that the spot ETFs will attract $1 billion in the first few days and $2.4 billion within a quarter.
#2 Bitcoin’s 4th Halving: The analysts predict that the Bitcoin halving in April 2024 will occur smoothly, without major disruptions. This event is expected to lead to a significant price rally for Bitcoin, potentially breaking past the $48,000 mark.
They believe this will be driven by reduced coin issuance and a consolidation in the mining sector. Notably, Van Eck foresees a massive Bitcoin adoption by “quasi-state entities” in Latin America, the Middle East, and Asia.
“Argentina will join El Salvador, the UAE, Oman, and Bhutan as the fifth country to sponsor Bitcoin mining at the state level, as Argentina’s state-owned energy giant YPF may indicate interest in mining digital assets with stranded methane and gas,” VanEck foretells.
#3 Bitcoin’s New All-Time High In Q4: Sigel and Bush forecast a new all-time high for Bitcoin in Q4 2024. This prediction is grounded in historical patterns of Bitcoin’s performance and broader market trends.
“In the second half of 2024, Bitcoin will climb a Presidential-sized wall of worry. […] After a combative election that saw Donald Trump win 290 electoral votes and regain the Presidency, […] we think the BTC price will reach an all-time high on November 9th, exactly 3 years to the day from its last all-time high,” VanEck forecasts.
Ethereum And NFTs
#4 Ethereum’s Position: VanEck anticipates that Ethereum will not surpass BTC in terms of market capitalization. However, Ethereum is expected to outperform every mega-cap tech stock and retain a significant position in the crypto market.
“ETH won’t begin outperforming Bitcoin until post-halving and may outperform for the year, but there will be no “flippening.” Despite a strong performance in 2024, ETH will lose market share to other smart contract platforms with less uncertainty surrounding their scalability roadmap, such as Solana,” Sigel and Bush forecast.
#5 Ethereum Layer 2s Post-EIP-4844: Following Ethereum’s implementation of EIP-4844, Sigel and Bush predict a rise in the prominence of Layer 2 solutions. These solutions are expected to capture the majority of the Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM)-compatible Total Value Locked (TVL) and trading volume:
“Ethereum L2s will consolidate down to 2-3 dominant players as measured by value and usage. One will achieve higher monthly DEX volume/TVL than Ethereum for the first time.”
#6 NFT Market Rebound: The analysis includes a bullish outlook for the NFT market, with volumes predicted to reach new highs in 2024. Ethereum is expected to continue leading the NFT space, with significant growth in Bitcoin-based NFT offerings.
Exchanges, Stablecoins And Bitcoin Yield
#7 Shift In Exchange Dominance: Binance’s dominance in spot trading volumes is expected to be challenged, with emerging competitors potentially taking the lead. This shift could be influenced by regulatory developments and market dynamics.
“Binance will lose the #1 position for spot trading, with competitors like OKX, Bybit, Coinbase, and Bitget contending for leadership. Coinbase’s futures market may exceed $1 billion daily volume as regulated index inclusion becomes key,” VanEck predicts.
#8 Stablecoin Market Cap Surge: The total value of stablecoins on-chain is predicted to reach new heights, potentially surpassing $200 billion. The analysts foresee a shift in market share from USDT to USDC, reflecting institutional preferences.
#9 DEX Market Share Increase: Decentralized Exchanges (DEX) are forecasted to reach an all-time high in market share. This is attributed to improvements in on-chain trading experiences and the rise of high-throughput chains like Solana.
#10 Bitcoin Yield Opportunities: Remittances are expected to become a significant use case for blockchain technology, with Bitcoin playing a central role. “Bitcoin Staking” is predicted to become a popular narrative, especially on networks like the Lightning Network.
Gaming, Solana And Much More
#11 Breakthrough In Blockchain Gaming: At least one blockchain game is projected to surpass 1 million daily active users. This indicates the potential for blockchain technology in the gaming industry, a sector that has been eagerly anticipated to integrate with blockchain.
#12 Solana’s Growth: Solana is expected to become a top three blockchain by market cap, TVL, and active users. This growth is predicted to be fueled by its efficiency and increasing adoption in the DeFi space.
#13 Adoption Of DePin Networks: Decentralized physical infrastructure networks, like Hivemapper and Helium, are forecasted to see meaningful adoption, capturing public attention with their innovative approaches to mapping and wireless infrastructure.
#14 New Accounting Treatment For Crypto: Changes in accounting guidelines are anticipated to favor the inclusion of cryptocurrency in corporate holdings, potentially leading to increased corporate investment in digital assets.
#15 KYC Integration In DeFi: Finally, the analysts foresee a rise in KYC-enabled applications in the DeFi space. This trend is expected to attract institutional liquidity and volume, driving growth in this sector.
At press time, BTC traded at $43,448.
Featured image from Unsplash / BoliviaInteligente, chart from TradingView.com